The 2026 Puget Sound Housing Market, Looking Ahead.

Is it UP or DOWN…or what

The Puget Sound Housing Market in a few words: Kind of Slow …, Like it’s taking a Deep Breath.

And it’s not just here.

Like, don’t go buy a place in Florida right now. It’s not just the snakes and alligators, although that’s a good reason! Or Texas….

The deal is it’s not always easy to follow the numbers provided by the big box real estate companies. They often conflict like now for example; Zillow tells me there’s 1.3 million homes on the market nation wide and Redfin Tells me it’s 1.9 million. And thats quite a difference.

We rely on the integrity of the large reporters of real estate activity; Zillow, Redfin, NRA (national association of realtors,) But their numbers often don’t reflect what we know is really happening. And that’s business, I guess.

Fact is we have twice as many homes available for buyers nationwide as last year at this time and that’s often reflected locally as well. And 4 months is not unusual for time duration on market so… My peers looking in the rear view mirror will call this a ‘balanced market.’ I don’t think so…

That’s a Buyers market.

Call your local real estate contact and get local data. My advice… Don’t rely on the Big Box companies - they live and die by optimistic reports.

And besides, my interest is King County and Pierce County here in Washington.

But not to worry;

If you’ve been doom-scrolling headlines lately, you’d be forgiven for thinking the housing market is either (a) moments away from falling into the sea or (b) still strapped to a rocket headed for the moon.

Like I said, there are cities in the U.S. that are experiencing slow and falling real estate markets. Texas, Florida and even California for example but the reality in our region here in King and Pierce Counties is far less dramatic—and yep, that’s good news for almost everyone.

Buyer’s could still use a break out there but we are seeing a more balanced market than we have had since around 2019.

We’re seeing the Puget Sound market doing something rare and oddly wholesome: it’s re-balancing. Inventory is up, twice as much as last year at this time, urgency is down, and buyer demand is still… very much alive.

Rates have twitched a little bit in their favor and loan underwriting guidelines are becoming a little less severe.

Think of it less like “the market is crashing” and more like “the market is switching from sprinting to jogging.”

The Big Picture: Stability With Personality

Across the region, home prices are showing relative stability. Here in King County we’re experiencing a slight cooling (including some modest year-over-year dips), while Pierce County is showing steady demand and more consistent growth thanks to affordability.

Translation:

• No cliff-dive crash.

• More choice for buyers.

• Sellers still have leverage, just not quite the 2023-level superpowers. Patience is a virtue

King County: Expensive, Evolving, and Very Neighborhood-Specific.

Ok so, King County remains the pricier sibling in the family—still impressive, still high-achieving, still likely to remind you of it at dinner. Microsoft, Boeing, Costco, AT&T, Amazon…etc. But even here, the story has shifted.

1) Moderating Appreciation (aka “The Market Has Found Its Indoor Voice”)

After big swings in years past, King County is settling into something more sustainable. We’re seeing slower price growth, and in some months slight year-over-year declines—for example, around -2.5% in Nov 2025.

That may sound alarming until you remember:

• A modest dip after major run-ups is not the same as a collapse.

• Many homeowners are still sitting on significant gains from earlier appreciation.

2) Sub market Differences: One County, Multiple Markets

King County is not one market—it’s a collection of micro-markets wearing a trench coat.

• The Eastside (still the Eastside) remains resilient, with price increases holding up better in premium areas.

• Central Seattle is showing slower trends, reflecting more sensitivity to affordability, buyer selectiveness, and local supply.

The Takeaway! 👉 Pricing and strategy in King County are increasingly hyper-local.

The right plan in Bellevue may be the wrong plan in Ballard. (Have a wise, experienced broker and you can’t go wrong.)

3) Inventory Growth: More Listings, Less Frenzy

With more listings coming to market, conditions are balancing. Now, I know I get a little freaked out as a broker when homes start getting listed right near an active listing of mine and they measure and set their sales price against ours, for example, but that’s life. And more time on the market means more time to properly market your home to the widest audience but the trick is to stay frosty!

Homes are taking a bit longer to sell—around 31-39 days on market—which is a noticeable change from the frantic pace of 2023.

Personally, I have a listing that’s taking a bit longer, a perfect 2 bedroom and very well priced condo in Seatac. Just sayin’

Anyways, more time on the market isn’t a  “nobody’s buying” signal. It’s a “buyers are reading the disclosures before writing an offer” signal. They can shop a little.

Pierce County: The Value Play With Steady Momentum.

Pierce County continues to attract buyers who want more home for their money—whether that’s extra space, a different commute equation, or simply the ability to purchase without selling a kidney on the black market.

I have seen a few pockets of sales decline but for the most part, Pierce county is the place to buy if you want more home for your dollar.

1) Strong Demand + Affordability = Consistent Growth

Pierce remains more affordable, which matters a lot in a higher-rate world. That affordability keeps demand strong and supports consistent (though slower) price increases.

In plain terms: Pierce isn’t immune to interest rates, but it’s better positioned to keep buyers engaged.

2) Growing Inventory: More Choices Without Killing Demand

New listings are increasing here too, which means more options and a healthier market overall. Buyers get breathing room, and sellers still benefit from a buyer pool that hasn’t disappeared. Peeps are still getting pre-approved and Lenders are busy enough…

3) Steady Pace: Still a Seller’s Market (Just Not a Stampede)

Homes are selling in about 31-45 days 😃—reasonably quick, but not “list on Thursday, review offers in 6 minutes” quick. Less stress, less friction, better rest.

This is what a healthy seller’s market often looks like: demand is strong, but buyers aren’t forced to behave like caffeine junkies bidding at an auction.

Why Prices Aren’t Falling Off a Cliff (Even With Higher Rates)

A few stability factors are doing a lot of behind-the-scenes work:

• Rising supply is easing the pressure cooker. More inventory = less desperation. (but we need more and more fresh new home construction)

• Buyer activity remains steady, even with higher rates. Many homes are still selling at or above list price, which naturally puts a floor under prices.

• The region still has deep underlying demand—jobs, lifestyle, and long-term desirability don’t vanish overnight.

So instead of a dramatic drop, the market is more likely to deliver gradual appreciation or modest dips, depending on neighborhood, condition, and price point.

Forecast Into Early 2026: Sideways, Then Slowly Forward

Looking ahead, expect the market to continue moving sideways or show a slow pickup into early 2026—with slower appreciation rates as affordability tries to catch up.

But now we’re dealing with property tax hikes, insurance nonsense and inflation. Never a dull moment.

But sideways movement is usually what makes the next healthier growth cycle possible. 🤞

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling

If You’re Buying

You may finally get what buyers have been asking for: options and time to think. Not unlimited time—but enough to be strategic instead of reactive. The best homes, smartly priced, still move quickly, but you’re less likely to be trapped in constant bidding wars.

If You’re Selling

This is not “list it and they will come” season. It’s “price it right, present it well, and market it intentionally” season. The buyers are out there—just more discerning. Get yourself an inspection and you’ll be best prepared to meet buyers.

Bottom Line: The Market Isn’t Crashing—It’s Normalizing

King County and Pierce County aren’t showing crash behavior. They’re showing transition behavior: increased inventory balancing steady demand, leading to more sustainable pricing patterns.

• King County: pricier, cooling a bit, and increasingly neighborhood dependent.

• Pierce County: more affordable, steady demand, and consistent growth momentum.

Thinking of moving? I can help.

Jeremy 425.894.4316